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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a strong stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "severe ramifications" in August should Vladimir Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, he finally imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

But, through his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's proposal would in practice favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality undermine that essential autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business experience, Trump persists to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops serves as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in place the presently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear way to the capital should he eventually decide to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected government as Nazis, the plan declares: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the proposal includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade other states" and to "establish in law its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached comparable accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate joint military response" if Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics include vague to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from stationing forces on the nation's land, thereby precluding the security presence, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

Another supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. However different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best protection against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to act through arms to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not