Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
