Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”